Fork in the Road
Often when I'm just sitting around, I wonder what the future holds. While I'm not a big sci-fi fan, I do think about movies, short stories, and articles I've read or seen that envision what the future will be like for humans on this planet. On my optimistic days, I think that there is plenty of ingenuity, innovation, creativity, and resourcefulness that we'll all be relatively okay. Other times, I'm pessimistic.
I'm probably starting to sound like a broken record (for examples thereof, see here, here, and here!), but I read this article last week, and found it rather thoughtful. While I agree that our "industrial civilization" as we know it won't exist in the same form once traditional energy sources/minerals are gone, I highly doubt that we're suddenly going to jump back to the Middle Ages. For one thing, the knowledge and technology we possess will still be intact. We're just going to have to figure out another way to make it all work.
Where I *do* agree with the author is the fact that absent reliable means of transporting food, we're going to be forced to go back to either growing our own food or relying on local markets to supply goods. Given the fact that many present-day cities and metropolitan areas developed from small towns and farming villages, this means the best land available for farming and growing food is gone. A perfect example is in the Central Valley here in California, where I grew up. The first settlers situated themselves near resources: water, wood, and previously developed areas. This meant erecting homes and towns on or near Indian villages (the same was true much earlier in our history; you think the Pilgrims and the Jamestown settlers just magically waved a wand and had towns overnight? Think again!), where fields were already cleared, paths to rivers and forests existed, and the land could easily support a family or two. Or three, or four... Before you knew it, a town sprang up, which then blossomed from a village into a city. In the case of important hubs, ports, and other centers of business, these cities exploded into metropolises, gobbling up all the available land with it.
In the Santa Clara Valley, where my parents grew up, there used to be hundreds of acres of fruit trees, farms, and other rural outposts. Even as late as the 1960s, there were miles of apricot, plum, and peach trees around the San Jose area. Not today. All of that area in the South Bay is now overrun with dot.coms, overpriced houses, freeways, strip malls, and other aspects of human habitation. It's so expensive and crowded people are living in Livermore, Tracy, even as far as Stockton, Manteca, and other valley towns and commuting to jobs in Oakland, San Jose, and San Francisco. Of course, all the fertile farmland in those towns are sold to developers for a tidy sum, who then permanently destroy the topsoil in their mad dash to create a new cookie-cutter development and reap big bucks from the desperate souls in search of a 3 or 4-bedroom castle complete with lawn and backyard.
So what happens when everything comes crashing down? You can't exactly tear down a house and try to become a farmer overnight. I know I'll probably end up not doing it, but sometimes I fantasize that the best thing for me to do is to try to buy a small farm or a few acres *now*, teach myself how to grow the crops I need, and prepare for the day when going to the supermarket is going to seem as archaic as a doctor making a house call. A few fruit trees, a large vegetable garden, a patch of wheat, a few chickens... something simple. Those of you that know me know this is definitely a pipe dream! *grin*
I am fascinated though by Partridge's mention of bio-fuels, especially the use of garbage. I'll have to educate myself more about this. I already think solar energy is an idea that should have been implemented ages ago. When Enron was screwing us a couple years back, people who had solar panels on their houses actually ended up with excess energy, and were able to keep their bills ridiculously low. I know they're expensive to install initially, but if we end up staying in California or the Southwest, I will probably spring for the installation of solar panels on our roof. Even if we end up somewhere back East, it would still allow us to reduce the amount of gas and electricity we need from more traditional sources.
I definitely agree with the need to redistribute our federal funds from military use to preparing for the future. The U.S. spends more on its military than any other nation; surely we can divert some of that money towards developing new sources of energy? I'd rather use our collective money to save lives and maintain as much of our standard of living as we can than use it to kill and maim people.
I'll be curious to see if anyone influential actually assesses the kinds of things Partridge mentions, and apply some of that reasoning towards some viable solutions. In the meantime, we're definitely at a fork in the road, and it's time to choose which path we're going to take as we ride into a future that has no petroleum.
I'm probably starting to sound like a broken record (for examples thereof, see here, here, and here!), but I read this article last week, and found it rather thoughtful. While I agree that our "industrial civilization" as we know it won't exist in the same form once traditional energy sources/minerals are gone, I highly doubt that we're suddenly going to jump back to the Middle Ages. For one thing, the knowledge and technology we possess will still be intact. We're just going to have to figure out another way to make it all work.
Where I *do* agree with the author is the fact that absent reliable means of transporting food, we're going to be forced to go back to either growing our own food or relying on local markets to supply goods. Given the fact that many present-day cities and metropolitan areas developed from small towns and farming villages, this means the best land available for farming and growing food is gone. A perfect example is in the Central Valley here in California, where I grew up. The first settlers situated themselves near resources: water, wood, and previously developed areas. This meant erecting homes and towns on or near Indian villages (the same was true much earlier in our history; you think the Pilgrims and the Jamestown settlers just magically waved a wand and had towns overnight? Think again!), where fields were already cleared, paths to rivers and forests existed, and the land could easily support a family or two. Or three, or four... Before you knew it, a town sprang up, which then blossomed from a village into a city. In the case of important hubs, ports, and other centers of business, these cities exploded into metropolises, gobbling up all the available land with it.
In the Santa Clara Valley, where my parents grew up, there used to be hundreds of acres of fruit trees, farms, and other rural outposts. Even as late as the 1960s, there were miles of apricot, plum, and peach trees around the San Jose area. Not today. All of that area in the South Bay is now overrun with dot.coms, overpriced houses, freeways, strip malls, and other aspects of human habitation. It's so expensive and crowded people are living in Livermore, Tracy, even as far as Stockton, Manteca, and other valley towns and commuting to jobs in Oakland, San Jose, and San Francisco. Of course, all the fertile farmland in those towns are sold to developers for a tidy sum, who then permanently destroy the topsoil in their mad dash to create a new cookie-cutter development and reap big bucks from the desperate souls in search of a 3 or 4-bedroom castle complete with lawn and backyard.
So what happens when everything comes crashing down? You can't exactly tear down a house and try to become a farmer overnight. I know I'll probably end up not doing it, but sometimes I fantasize that the best thing for me to do is to try to buy a small farm or a few acres *now*, teach myself how to grow the crops I need, and prepare for the day when going to the supermarket is going to seem as archaic as a doctor making a house call. A few fruit trees, a large vegetable garden, a patch of wheat, a few chickens... something simple. Those of you that know me know this is definitely a pipe dream! *grin*
I am fascinated though by Partridge's mention of bio-fuels, especially the use of garbage. I'll have to educate myself more about this. I already think solar energy is an idea that should have been implemented ages ago. When Enron was screwing us a couple years back, people who had solar panels on their houses actually ended up with excess energy, and were able to keep their bills ridiculously low. I know they're expensive to install initially, but if we end up staying in California or the Southwest, I will probably spring for the installation of solar panels on our roof. Even if we end up somewhere back East, it would still allow us to reduce the amount of gas and electricity we need from more traditional sources.
I definitely agree with the need to redistribute our federal funds from military use to preparing for the future. The U.S. spends more on its military than any other nation; surely we can divert some of that money towards developing new sources of energy? I'd rather use our collective money to save lives and maintain as much of our standard of living as we can than use it to kill and maim people.
I'll be curious to see if anyone influential actually assesses the kinds of things Partridge mentions, and apply some of that reasoning towards some viable solutions. In the meantime, we're definitely at a fork in the road, and it's time to choose which path we're going to take as we ride into a future that has no petroleum.
posted by Mr. Sandman | 10:05 PM
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